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Leading early, Machado claims win in Venezuelan opposition’s presidential primary_我的网站

一 |     CARACAS, Venezuela -- Early returns in the Venezuelan opposition's presidential primary gave a big lead to former legislator Maria Corina Machado early Monday, and she quickly claimed victory as the voters' choice to lead the campaign to end the decade-long, crisis-ridden presidency of Nicolás Maduro. The independent National Primary Commission, which organized the primary, did not release any results until long after polling stations closed Sunday, blaming internet censorship. The organizers said that in the first 601,110 ballots counted, about 93% picked Machado, who had entered the vote as a strong front-runner. The rest of the votes were scattered among the other nine candidates. There was no indication of how many people cast ballots in all, and organizers were expected to release additional results throughout Monday.“Today, very powerful forces have been unleashed," Machado told supporters gathered outside her campaign headquarters in the capital, Caracas. “Today, we have shown ourselves what we are capable of doing in the face of all the obstacles, in the face of all the abuses.”Holding Venezuela’s first presidential primary since 2012 required the deeply fractured opposition to work together. Venezuelans, in turn, showed up at voting centers in and outside of their homeland to make it count, enthusiastically lining up for hours despite scorching sun and torrential rain.Still, what they saw as a monumental exercise in democracy could still prove futile, if Maduro’s government wishes.While the administration agreed in principle to let the opposition choose its candidate for the 2024 presidential election, it also has already barred Machado from running for office. Maduro’s government has in the past bent the law, retaliated against opponents and breached agreements as it sees fit.Hundreds of people gathered at voting centers in neighborhoods across Caracas even before polls opened. They stayed in line despite a rainstorm that left them soaking wet. They carried umbrellas, folding stools and coffee to ease the expected waits, and leaned against buildings or stood under marquees to try to avoid the rain. Caracas resident Stephanie Aguilar, 34, cried while she waited to vote. She described the primary as the only “salvation” for her country, her daughter and son, and the millions of Venezuelans who decided they had to emigrate due to the nation’s economic and political turmoil. “We want a better country, a free country, for my children ... who have grown up in this government,” Aguilar, a housewife, said as she wiped tears from her face. “They ask, ‘Mom, can we go out to eat?’ No, there is no money. ‘Mom, can we do this thing?’ No, there is no money. It is unfortunate that a society grows up under those conditions.”Venezuelans typically vote at public schools, but the independent commission that oversaw the primary opted to use homes, churches, private schools and other facilities after electoral authorities did not respond to requests for help in a timely manner.Jesús María Casal, head of the National Primary Commission, blamed the hours-long delay in issuing election results on internet restrictions. “Once we began the process of counting the results ... we detected that our server that functioned as a transmission channel was blocked, which prevents us from completing this process as scheduled,” he said.The London-based internet monitoring firm NetBlocks tweeted metrics showing “a disruption to internet connectivity in #Venezuela with high impact to Caracas." It added that a state-owned internet service provider claimed “an issue with its energy backup system.”David Smilde, an expert on Venezuelan politics at Tulane University, said the primary was a “significant achievement” for several reasons, including forcing political leaders and parties within the opposition “to reach out and speak to the people.”“And it has generated considerable enthusiasm and mobilization in a population that has been skeptical of the opposition leadership of late,” he said.Machado, a proponent of free-market economic policies, is a longtime critic of the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela. She maintained a somewhat low profile for years but dominated the primary campaign by connecting with the same voters she consistently urged to boycott previous elections.The presidential election is expected to be scheduled for the second half of 2024. Maduro is looking to extend his presidency until 2030, which would surpass the time that Hugo Chávez, his mentor, governed and established his self-described socialist policies.Maduro’s allies ridiculed and dismissed the primary all year. Still, both the government and its opponents used the contest as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from each other as part of a negotiation process meant to end the country’s complex social, economic and political crisis. Maduro and an opposition faction backed by the U.S. government last week agreed to work together on basic conditions for the presidential contest. That prompted the government to release six political prisoners and the Biden administration to lift key economic sanctions. As part of the agreement, Maduro’s administration and the opposition are supposed to “recognize and respect the right of each political actor to select” a presidential candidate freely.If organizers declare Machado the primary's winner, the focus will shift to Maduro to see if the government reverses its ban on her seeking public office. In June, the government issued an administrative decision prohibiting Machado from running, alleging fraud and tax violations and accusing her of seeking the economic sanctions the U.S. imposed on Venezuela in the last decade. The U.S., holding up the threat of renewed sanctions, has given Venezuela until the end of November to establish a process for reinstating all candidates expeditiously.A U.N.-backed panel investigating human rights abuses in Venezuela said last month that Maduro’s government has intensified efforts to curtail democratic freedoms ahead of the 2024 election. That includes subjecting some politicians and other opponents to detention, surveillance, threats, defamatory campaigns and arbitrary criminal proceedings.All registered voters in Venezuela were allowed to participate in the primary, as well as tens of thousands living in several other countries.“This is unprecedented,” said a smiling María de los Ángeles León, 31, the coordinator of Mexico City’s voting site. “People know that we have no guarantees that the winner of this election will be able to advance to the presidential election, but we keep trying.”___Associated Press writer María Verza in Mexico City contributed to this report.。    全球地缘政治的舞台上，乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的冲突无疑是一个复杂而引人关注的话题。最近，英国政府批准向乌克兰转让“风暴之影”巡航导弹的制造技术，这一消息就像是在这场已经绵延多年的战争中投下了一颗重磅炸弹。这样看似有利于乌克兰的举动，却同时也揭示了其背后深层的军事困境和战略挑战。    首先，让我们来探究一下这款“风暴之影”导弹的特点。

二 | 根据报道，它可以打击250公里外的目标，给乌克兰军队的远程打击能力带来了提升。西方国家对乌克兰的支持不断加码，似乎在加快其武器现代化进程。

三 |     但是，我们不可忽视的是，这种导弹的性能也并非全方位压制敌军。实际上，俄罗斯军队具备一定的拦截能力，换句话说，这种导弹在帮助乌克兰增强火力的同时，也无法让其在战场上扭转整体局势。        对于乌军而言，与美军的现代化战术相比，他们面临的确实是更加复杂的局面。

四 | 美军在历史上的战争往往目标明确，若成功推翻了对手政权，后续的治安问题通常由扶持的政权来解决。然而，乌克兰此时不能简单模仿美军的打法，因为其面对的是俄罗斯这样一个拥有强大地面控制能力的对手。    自2022年俄罗斯展开特别军事行动以来，顿巴斯地区的控制权显然已不再完全归乌克兰所有，反而俄军在这一地区的驻扎受到了部分民众的欢迎，这从某种程度上说，对乌军而言无疑是个巨大的心理压力。    更为严峻的是，乌克兰的征兵形势如今已经堪忧。随着时间的推移，乌克兰部队的损失在不断加大，前线的伤亡率高得令人难以承受，再加上使用强制手段征兵的情况屡见不鲜。    现阶段，乌军所能集结的精锐部队数量正在显著减少，导致他们在反攻俄军的过程中显得力不从心。结合乌军在收复赫尔松后几乎没有取得任何显著进展的现实，可以说，如今的乌克兰面临着多重挑战。        再来看这场冲突的根本性质，双方的主要目标是消耗对方的国力。乌克兰希望通过外部援助加强自身的打击能力，而俄罗斯则在积极恢复本国的生产能力并加大打击力度。    值得注意的是，俄罗斯油气企业在经历了之前的困难后，生产能力逐渐恢复，且油价已经出现下滑，这些都将为其持续的军事行动提供后盾。正因如此，单纯依靠外部的支持和补给，毫无疑问不能改变乌克兰的命运。    另外，随着战线的僵持，双方的攻击目标已经开始向对方的后方工业设施和运输节点转移。这不仅仅是一场简单的传统战争，而是一场针对国力的消耗战。无人机的广泛使用，使得双方都在努力寻找能够实现战略突破的机会。然而，这种高频率、密集型的打击并未必能迅速见到成效，反而可能使两国陷入一种更加长期的对抗状态。        在这样的背景下，乌克兰如果想要真正扭转战局，必须在战略目标上做出调整。光凭借外援和短期战术的优势，显然难以确保长久的胜利。或许，乌克兰需要考虑的不仅是军事打击的扩展，还包括如何更好地整合国内外资源，进行有效的外交斗争，寻找可行的和平解决途径。

五 |     当前乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的对抗不仅是武器和力量的较量，更是一场战略智慧的博弈。从“风暴之影”巡航导弹的技术转让，到乌军面临的征兵危机和富有韧性的俄罗斯国力，都是这场战争不可忽视的因素。当我们站在历史的长河中回望时，乌克兰的未来走向，将是一个深具悬念和复杂性的议题。

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